Dwyer's View

Sat. 15th August, 2009

“Can anyone beat the Boks?” That’s the question on everyone lips, especially for this year’s Tri-Nations Tournament.

Well, there’s no doubt that they could be beaten, but it will take a very good team and a very good performance to do just that. After all, the Lions did beat them in the third, but inconsequential, test. Significantly, the Lions gave us a good clue on one of the ways to get on top and both Australia and New Zealand showed glimpses of real try scoring opportunities against a less-than-secure Springbok defence.

That defence is based on two fundamental concepts. The first is – “They can’t score without the ball!” and the second is – “If they want to shift the ball and run at us, they had better be good, because we will put them under maximum pressure!”

So to the first concept.

They have a fantastic lineout. You had better make sure that your’s is up to standard, at least on your own throw, otherwise you are in real trouble. The All Blacks and Wallabies both suffered horribly in this department in the recent matches, but surely they will have come up with some strategies which will bear fruit in the next few weeks.

On the other hand, the Springbok scrum is decidedly creaky. New Zealand managed to put them under real pressure at times and Australia positively destroyed a few Springbok feeds, after Tatafu-Nau and Alexander were subbed on in the most recent match. Food for thought!

Smit and Mtawarira and just ok scrummagers at this level.  Bismark du Plessis is excellent, but the standard drops off alarmingly, if Ralapelle comes on. The Lions absolutely massacred the Bok scrum when Ralapelle started in the third test. There is a huge opportunity here to put a big dent in the confidence of this riding-high Springbok team. Into the bargain, you would be negating one of their important attacking weapons – Fourie du Preez’ high-ball from the scrum base.

The Springbok defenders are poor readers of quality attack. This has been obvious against all three of this year’s opponents. The Lions made plenty of holes; the All Blacks looked threatening every time they moved the ball and the Wallabies, with most limited possession and enterprise, still outscored them, two tries to one – and that from a kick.

The cue is then to get some quality attack. Quality attack, in my opinion, is about asking questions of the defence. The better and more frequent the questions, the better the result. This Springbok team will come with the wrong answer often. You can’t ask difficult questions, however, with faulty technique.  Perfect execution is needed to overcome the pace and physicality of this Bok defensive strategy. This is not at all difficult, but it does require the will and the effort – and the fundamental knowledge – on the part of the coaching staff, to insist and to persist. It is purely perfect execution of simple tasks.

This web-site was present at Newlands in Cape Town last weekend and, as previously reported by me, saw shoddy execution go totally uncorrected – and apparently, unnoticed – in the Wallaby warm-up! God help me! Poor passes, forward passes, dropped ball, inaccurate support play – how can they produce any quality with this level of preparation. Quality execution of quality technique will survive against any pressure. It will not prosper every time, but it will survive, and soon it will prosper against this questionable Bok defence.

Good attack, especially good mid-field attack, also produces dividends in the set-plays. The forwards are soon distracted from their roles in the set-plays, if the mid-field is leaking. You might even get Brussow out of the front row of the Springbok scum!

And so to the three teams.

1       .South Africa. 

I’m most impressed that they have added another important string to their bow, with the addition of an excellent rucking strategy. I’m not talking about the current vogue of a static collection of bodies on the ground at the tackle contest - how pathetic is this! – but a dynamic driving forward juggernaut, creating excellent go forward ball, and even turnovers. Traditionally, we were used to seeing this from All Black teams, indeed it was their hallmark, but this is the first time that I have ever seen it from a Springbok team.

Then there is the possibility that they could select both Morne Steyn, at fullback, and the excellent  Ruan Pienaar , at flyhalf. That is a frightening prospect, but we can always hope that it will bring them undone.

On the minus side, we’ve yet to see how they’ll go on the road, without the home ground refereeing support that has been so important to Morne Steyn and their score card.

2.        New Zealand.

They’ve been poor, but they’ve still had one win and stayed in touch, on the scoreboard, in both of their losses. Unusually, McCaw has been less than effective, but I put that down mainly to the shoddy execution of the All Black backs – if you are a “link player”, you need something to link to and from. There’s no doubt that the imminent return of Dan Carter, surely  the world’s best player, will make a ton of difference. I remember the first time I saw Dan Carter. He had just played at in-center for the Crusaders against my Waratahs team in a pre-season match in Newcastle. I remarked to their coach, Robbie Deans, that “the young in-centre looks a pretty good player.” I got that wrong by some degree!

They’ll be better for sure.

3.       Australia.

This year, I was expecting the next step up the ladder of the Robbie Deans led resurgence of quality play. Remember the days when the Wallabies were the model for the world in quality attacking play. Good; that proves you’ve got a good memory. Well, so far this year we’ve gone backwards. When was the last time you saw Mat Giteau get a second touch on attack. My case rests!

The return of Rocky Elsom will help hugely, but, as Deans said this week, it would be unrealistic to expect a huge impact immediately. We have some huge selection issues also.  I’m plumping for Tatafu-Nau and Alexander in the front-row. Even though Moore and Baxter have been good, I think that the other two offer something special. I think that Ryan Cross is very good in attack, defence and kick-chase. We must not miss this opportunity to get him onto the pitch!

On the points table, the Springboks are clear leaders with three home wins – but no bonus points. Next come the All Blacks with one home win – but again no bonus points. The Wallabies trail with no wins from three away games – but crucially they have an away bonus point. This could still prove decisive.

The question now changes, “Can the Boks win away from home?”

Bob Dwyer.