Dwyer's View

The 2009 Tri-Nations Tournament begins next Saturday, 18^th July in Auckland as perhaps the most open tournament in recent years. The top three teams in the IRB world rankings are New Zealand, South Africa and Australia, in that order, so this is the fight for supremacy.

Last year’s winners New Zealand have battled significant injuries to significant players for the last six months or more. Australia continue their steady rise in performances, under the Robbie Deans regime, without looking quite the finished article as yet. Reigning world champions, South Africa, have a stunning series victory against the British & Irish Lions under their belts already this season, but may have created more problems for selection than they have solved.

Let’s begin with a look at last year’s Tri-Nations champions, New Zealand.

The All Blacks are still the benchmark for world performance and they are the No.1 team in IRB world rankings. They are still without the superb Dan Carter, a huge blow by any standards, but, significantly, they have the equally superb Richie McCaw back. Sitiveni Sivivatu and Rodney So’oialu also return to massively strengthen the team. These are all world class players.

On the minus side, they have not been able to settle the front five in the forwards and fly-half and in-centre remain a problem. With Conrad Smith available at outside centre, the selection of the mid-field becomes a little easier, as his under-stated finesse game ideally complements the explosive, but sometimes erratic, contribution of Ma’a Nonu. Smith however, seems unable to string two games together without injury.

Fly-half continues to be a giant problem for the All Blacks. Neither Donald nor McAllister has looked the dominant, controlling force that Henry is looking for, whilst injuries have disrupted development of both players at this highest level.

The Springboks, at times this year, have looked unstoppable. These periods, however sweet, have been regrettably short. It seems to me that they have manoeuvred themselves into a big muddle with selections. Front-row and back-row still look undecided, despite their dominance in the first test against the Lions – that seems like light years away now! Fly-half is certainly not settled, however either Ruan Pienaar or Morne Steyne are excellent choices. They have top quality, in some cases excellent, players available to them pretty well all over the pitch, but, somehow, I’m not yet convinced.

Perhaps the suspension of Schalk Burger will give them the opportunity to select a real open-side flanker – why do they persist in playing him in the #6 jersey? – in Heinrich Brussow. Australia and New Zealand would not hesitate to use his talents but it seems that South Africa are not convinced that quick ball is as useful as an ability to bash the opposition into submission.

 The Wallabies, on the other hand, have been able to move steadily towards a pretty settled squad – including a settled starting 15 and match 22. They have a number of combinations available to them, but they are all tried and proven over the last twelve months or so.

Adam Ashley-Cooper has shown that he can withstand the most searching aerial attack and counter-attack from their back three will place a lot of pressure on any kicking game. The Wallaby defence looks consistent and powerful. It will take top quality attack to find a route to the try-line against them.

The return of Wycliffe Palu gives another dimension to their forward pack and they can offer genuine impact off the bench. Add to this, arguably the world’s current best player, Matt Giteau, and they look formidable.

I’m not totally convinced with the Wallabies attack at this stage. They kick a lot too much for my liking, but perhaps that’s just one part of a work in progress. There is a steady, logical, “softly softly” look to the Robbie Deans development process and maybe we’ll see the next step in the development of the wider scope of the Wallabies’ attack before too long.

The key to the final outcome will be which team can win away from home.

The All Blacks have been good at it for some time now. The Wallabies are not bad either and the Springboks, although traditional strugglers, have shown a much more resilient ability, especially through the efforts of the Blue Bulls in the S14.

The All Blacks open the defence of their title against the Wallabies at Eden Park in Auckland. This is a most significant match, despite the fact that the Wallabies have not won there since Noah was a boy. All records are there to be broken and I believe that this one will go next weekend. The Wallabies look settled and the All Blacks not quite ready.

This will put New Zealand under the kosh with two games to play in South Africa on the following two Saturdays. This is the toughest beginning to any campaign and, although experience tells me different, I can’t see them handling it this time. I’m thinking that the best they can achieve out of their first three games is one win away at Bloemfontein. That would mean one win for each team from the first three games - an away win for the Wallabies, in Auckland, an away win in Bloem for the All Blacks but, significantly, a home loss for the Springboks. If this occurs, the pressure will be well and truly on the less than impressive Springbok away record.

This is the heavyweight title at stake and, although the fight will definitely go the distance, early blows will tell in the end.

I’m tipping Wallabies, All Blacks, Springboks -  1,2,3 - in that order.

Amazing how hard I try to prevent it, my heart still rules my head.